Analysis of the export situation of fused magnesium and aluminum

1. Export of fused magnesium and aluminum

According to customs statistics, from January to September, my country exported a total of 937,000 tons of light and heavy burned magnesium, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%; the export value was 346 million US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 15.7%; the average unit price was 368.9 US dollars / ton, a year-on-year decrease of 24.9%. The top six export markets for the price of calcined dolomite are the Netherlands with 283,000 tons, accounting for 30.2% of the total export; Japan with 176,000 tons, accounting for 18.8%; the United States with 175,000 tons, accounting for 18.7%; South Korea, 51,000 tons, accounting for 18.7% than 5.5%; Taiwan Province 29,000 tons, accounting for 3.2%; Russia 24,000 tons, accounting for 2.6%.

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2. Analysis of the export situation of light and heavy burnt magnesium

The export situation of my country's light-burned magnesia powder is becoming more and more severe, and the external demand is constantly deteriorating. The annual meeting of magnesia held in Salzburg, Austria in May was filled with pessimism and disappointment. A huge drop, only 70% of the normal level. Calcined dolomite prices The industry generally believes that the first half of 2012 was far more sluggish than in 2009. However, the export figures reflected in the customs export statistics have increased substantially. This discrepancy between reality and data is mainly caused by the cut-off of the statistics of goods exported by surprise in late 2011 to early 2012. While the quantity has grown substantially, the export value has actually declined. The scissors difference in this statistical data just shows that the market is in a continuous downward trend.

From the current product transaction price analysis, the actual transaction price of light-burned magnesium powder 9010 is about US$230/ton FOB, down about 30% from the beginning of the year; the price of light-burned magnesium 94 is about US$220/ton FOB, down about 35% from the beginning of the year %; the price of fused magnesium 97 is about US$660/ton FOB, down about 20% from the beginning of the year. Such a price level is already close to the cost line, and there is no profit for enterprises to conduct cost accounting according to the formal financial system. However, downward pressure on prices remains strong.

There are two main reasons for the sluggish market demand:

1. The European debt crisis has led to continuous turbulence in the international financial situation, and the recovery of the real economy lacks the support of a stable financial environment and consumer demand. The debt problem forced the governments of major developed countries, especially European countries, to compress their fiscal expenditures, which severely weakened the government's means and strength to stimulate economic development, and household consumption of real estate, automobiles, electrical appliances and other products continued to slump, resulting in steel, building materials, industrial ceramics and other products. Due to the backlog of products in the industry and insufficient work, the demand for refractory raw materials such as light and heavy burned magnesium has declined sharply. Calcined Dolomite Price

2. The doubts of domestic enterprises about the lack of demand in foreign markets began to ferment. Fearing that by the end of the year, companies will waste their quotas and suffer loss of performance or even be punished, they have begun to buy goods at lower prices. This wave of price cuts spread rapidly, and by October exports had been flat with costs, reaching a nearly four-year low. At the low price, foreign customers began to purchase in large quantities, and the shipment volume in the fourth quarter of 2011 reached more than 400,000 tons. At present, foreign users have a lot of inventory, and some varieties can be used until the end of 2012.

3. The pattern of the international light and heavy calcined magnesium market has changed. Due to the rapid and sharp rise in the price of China's light and heavy calcined magnesium products from 2006 to 2008, foreign users were forced to find other supply channels. After four years of adjustment, the global supply pattern of light and heavy calcined magnesium has undergone some changes. For example: Austrian Magnesium Group, a global refractory manufacturer, has invested in an 80,000-ton fused magnesium plant in Norway; Brazil's magnesium industry has formulated a plan to increase production capacity by 120,000 tons and has completed 60,000 tons; Turkey and Russia have begun Invest in the production of fused magnesium; North Korea's light-burned magnesium re-exports through my country are also increasing. These new production capacity and supply capacity have squeezed the market share of my country's products. Originally, my country's export volume of light and heavy burned magnesium accounted for about 65% of the international trade volume, but only 55% at present.

Insufficient demand, overstocked inventory, and reduced share made it extremely difficult to export in the first three quarters of this year.

3. Operation of the domestic industry

The magnesia industry is currently facing three serious problems. First, insufficient demand, poor sales, and backlog of products; second, declining sales prices, high fluctuations in production costs, and serious compression of the living space of enterprises; The cost increases and the operating risk increases; fourth, the construction is insufficient, and the number of shutdowns in the industry continues to expand. Currently, it is estimated that the average shutdown rate is as high as 40%.

Fourth, the recent situation forecast

Fused magnesium aluminum

In the near future, as the Chinese government's "steady growth" policies will be introduced one after another, the overall economic growth rate should be able to achieve the target of 8%. However, there are still many uncertain factors whether the situation of insufficient overall demand can be fundamentally reversed. In particular, it is unlikely that cyclical industries such as domestic steel, non-ferrous metals, and building materials will stop falling and rebound in the short term. The domestic refractory raw material inventory is under great pressure, and it cannot be ruled out that the price of light and heavy calcined magnesium products may be further lowered. Industry difficulties are yet to come, and the low for the full year could be in the fourth quarter. Calcined Dolomite Price